In a rare moment of bipartisan alignment in Washington, Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) have joined forces to introduce the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act — a piece of legislation that could fundamentally alter the landscape of online wagering in the United States. The bill takes direct aim at a growing class of financial platforms that have positioned themselves as commodity exchanges while offering what critics say are functionally indistinguishable from sports bets and political wagers.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the bill, why it has attracted unusual cross-aisle support, and what it means for everyone from retail sports bettors to institutional prediction market traders.
The Core Argument: Prediction Markets Are Gambling in Disguise
Senator Schiff, a Democrat, and Senator Curtis, a Republican, rarely find common legislative ground. Their alliance on this bill signals how broadly the concern about unregulated prediction markets has spread. Their central argument: if a platform allows you to place money on the outcome of a sporting event or election, it is gambling — regardless of whether the contracts are structured as commodity futures.
“Calling it a prediction market doesn’t change what it is,” Senator Schiff reportedly argued in remarks accompanying the bill’s introduction. “These platforms are taking wagers on the outcome of games and elections. That’s gambling, and it should be regulated as such.”
Senator Curtis, coming from a more libertarian-leaning perspective, has framed his support around consumer protection: “Americans deserve to know what rules protect them when they’re putting money at risk. Right now, prediction market users have far fewer protections than someone walking into a licensed casino.”
What the Bill Would Actually Do
Redefine “Gaming” Under Federal Law
The bill would amend existing federal gambling statutes to explicitly include prediction market contracts tied to sporting events, elections, and other discrete verifiable outcomes as “gaming” activities, subject to the same regulations as traditional sports wagering. This would close the loophole that has allowed platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to offer these markets under CFTC commodity exchange rules.
Force CFTC Platforms to Choose
Platforms currently operating sports and political prediction markets under CFTC designation would face a binary choice: exit those markets or obtain proper gaming licenses from individual states. Given the cost and complexity of obtaining state-by-state gaming licenses, this provision would effectively eliminate most current prediction market operators from offering event-based wagering products.
Extend Consumer Protections
The bill mandates that any prediction market operating in sports or electoral outcome spaces must:
- Implement age verification systems equivalent to licensed sportsbooks
- Provide geolocation controls to comply with state-level betting restrictions
- Participate in responsible gambling programs including self-exclusion registries
- Report suspicious activity to relevant sports integrity monitors
- Maintain segregated customer funds
Why This Bill Has Unusual Momentum
The Bipartisan Coalition
In today’s polarized political environment, bipartisan legislation is rare. But the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act has attracted supporters from both sides of the aisle for different reasons:
Democrats are primarily concerned with consumer protection and the potential for prediction markets to influence elections. The ability to trade contracts on electoral outcomes — with real money, in real time — raises concerns about market manipulation and the financialization of democratic processes.
Republicans are split: libertarian-leaning members are wary of new regulations, but others are responding to pressure from state governments (which lose tax revenue to federally-regulated prediction markets) and from the regulated gaming industry (which competes with these platforms at a significant regulatory disadvantage).
The Regulated Gaming Industry’s Role
It’s no secret that the American Gaming Association and major sportsbook operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM have lobbied aggressively for clarity on prediction market regulation. These companies have invested billions of dollars obtaining state gaming licenses and building compliance infrastructure — investments that unregulated prediction platforms have simply avoided. Leveling the playing field is both a fairness argument and a competitive strategy.
Counterarguments: Are Prediction Markets Being Unfairly Targeted?
Not everyone is on board with the legislation. A vocal coalition of economists, technologists, and civil libertarians has pushed back against the bill, arguing it conflates fundamentally different activities.
The Information Market Defense
Prediction market proponents argue that their platforms serve a genuine public good: aggregating dispersed information into accurate probability estimates. Research has shown that prediction markets often outperform traditional polling and expert analysis in forecasting elections, economic data, and other outcomes. Regulating them as gambling, critics argue, would destroy this information value.
Free Speech Implications
Some legal scholars have raised free speech concerns about regulating prediction markets on electoral outcomes. Placing a monetary bet on who will win an election could be construed as a form of political expression — and restricting it through gambling law may face constitutional challenges.
CFTC’s Jurisdictional Defense
Prediction market operators have argued before courts and regulators that their products are fundamentally different from gambling because they involve continuous price discovery, can be traded before settlement, and serve hedging functions. Courts have not fully resolved this jurisdictional question, and the Schiff-Curtis bill may not be the final word.
What Bettors Should Do Now
If you currently use prediction market platforms for sports wagering, this bill is a signal to diversify your access points. Regulatory changes can happen quickly, and platforms can be forced to exit markets with little notice. The safest approach is to ensure you have accounts with licensed, state-regulated sportsbooks in addition to any prediction market accounts.
Be cautious of offshore platforms that market themselves as prediction markets to avoid regulatory scrutiny. These are among the highest-risk operators in the online wagering space. Before depositing funds with any online platform — prediction market or otherwise — research it thoroughly. ScamBrokersReview.com maintains an updated database of suspicious financial platforms, and ForexTradingScam.com covers the overlap between forex scams and emerging crypto-based wagering platforms.
Timeline: What Happens Next
The bill has been referred to committee, where it will face scrutiny from members with ties to both the financial industry and the gaming industry. Key milestones to watch:
- Committee hearings: Expect CFTC officials, gaming regulators, and platform representatives to testify, likely in Q2 2026
- Lobbying blitz: Prediction market platforms will spend heavily to shape amendments or delay the bill
- State-level parallel action: Some states may move ahead with their own prediction market restrictions regardless of federal action
- Legal challenges: If the bill passes, expect immediate court challenges from platform operators
The Bigger Picture: Gambling Law Is Being Rewritten in Real Time
The Schiff-Curtis bill is part of a broader moment in U.S. gambling law. Since the Supreme Court’s 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision opened the door to state-level sports betting, the industry has grown faster than regulators can keep up. Prediction markets, crypto casinos, in-game micro-betting, and AI-enhanced wagering are all testing the boundaries of existing law.
The outcome of the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act will set a precedent not just for Kalshi and Polymarket, but for the next wave of wagering innovation. Wherever the line between “financial instrument” and “gambling product” is finally drawn, it will define what the online wagering industry looks like for the next decade.
Stay informed, bet responsibly, and only use licensed, regulated platforms. The regulatory landscape is shifting — and the decisions made in Washington today will determine what tools bettors have access to tomorrow.
Problem gambling is a serious issue. If you or someone you know needs help, contact the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700, available 24/7.
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