First goalscorer betting is a bet on which player will score the opening goal of a match, while anytime goalscorer pays out if your pick scores at any point in normal time. The two markets reward completely different skills: first scorer is high-variance and high-odds, while anytime is steadier and better suited to building a case around a reliable forward. This guide explains exactly how each market settles, where the value usually hides, and how to turn team news and role analysis into sharper selections rather than hopeful guesses.
How goalscorer markets actually work
There are three core goalscorer markets, and understanding the settlement rules is half the battle:
- First goalscorer (FGS): your player must score the first goal of the match. Odds are typically three to four times longer than the same player’s anytime price.
- Anytime goalscorer (AGS): your player must score at least one goal in normal time. It does not matter whether it is the first minute or deep into stoppage time — one goal settles the bet.
- Last goalscorer: your player must score the final goal of the match, priced similarly to first scorer.
A few settlement rules decide whether these bets are even live:
- Non-runner / non-starter rule: most bookmakers void first and last goalscorer bets (stake returned) if your player does not take any part in the match. Crucially, this usually applies to first goalscorer even for substitutes — if you back a sub for FGS and the opening goal is scored before they come on, your stake is returned. Anytime markets, by contrast, generally stand as losers once your player has taken the field and failed to score.
- Own goals don’t count: at nearly every bookmaker, an own goal is ignored for goalscorer settlement. If the first goal of the match is an own goal, first-scorer bets roll over to whoever nets the first “proper” goal.
- Dead heat rules: on last goalscorer and related doubles, if the market resolves between tied players, standard dead-heat rules can apply, reducing your returns proportionally.
Always read the specific rules on the slip you are using. These are not universal, and the own-goal and substitute clauses in particular catch out newcomers.
First goalscorer vs anytime: which should you back?
The honest answer is that neither is “better” — they suit different situations. First goalscorer is a longshot market by design. Even the most prolific striker rarely has better than a one-in-six or one-in-seven chance of scoring the very first goal, which is why the odds are generous. That makes FGS attractive when you have a strong read on who opens the scoring but a poor bet to lean on repeatedly, because the variance is brutal.
Anytime goalscorer is the market most sharp bettors prefer for regular staking. It gives your player the full 90-plus minutes to deliver, so your edge comes from genuine scoring likelihood rather than timing luck. It also combines cleanly with other markets — many bettors pair an anytime scorer with a result or both teams to score leg to build a priced-up “scorecast” or bet builder.
How to pick scorers: the factors that move the needle
Strong goalscorer selection is about role and context, not reputation. Work through these in order:
1. Minutes and starting status
A nailed-on 90-minute starter is worth far more than a rotation risk. Before you bet, confirm the player is expected to start — check confirmed or predicted line-ups, injury news and manager rotation patterns, especially around congested fixture periods or dead-rubber games.
2. Shot volume and penalty-box presence
Goals follow shots, and shots follow positioning. Favour players who consistently take a high volume of shots and attempts from inside the box rather than those who shoot from distance. A central striker who lives on the last defender’s shoulder is a cleaner anytime bet than a flair winger who drifts wide.
3. Penalty-taker status
This is one of the most reliable value angles in the market. A player on penalty duty has a materially higher scoring ceiling than one who is not, yet penalty responsibility changes mid-season and is not always widely reported. If you can confirm the current, first-choice taker — and spot a fixture against a team that concedes a lot of spot-kicks or commits fouls in the box — you have a genuine edge the odds may not fully reflect.
4. Opposition and game state
A forward facing a leaky, high-line defence is better placed than one up against a disciplined low block. Expected game state matters too: a favourite chasing a goal against deep opposition can rack up chances, while a defensive underdog may starve its striker of service.
Finding value, not just winners
The goalscorer markets are popular, which means bookmakers price the obvious stars tightly and sometimes overprice less fashionable names. Value tends to live in the second tier: the in-form midfielder arriving late into the box, the full-back on set-piece duty, or the striker who has quietly taken over penalties. The goal is to back a player whose true chance of scoring is higher than the odds imply — the same discipline we cover in our value betting strategy guide. If you are new to reading prices, our explainer on sports betting odds is a useful companion.
A practical approach: translate the anytime odds into an implied probability, then sanity-check it against the player’s recent shot and goal involvement. If a reliable penalty-taking striker is priced as a near 50/50 anytime shot but their underlying numbers suggest better, that is a candidate. If the price looks short relative to the role, pass — there is always another match.
Combining goalscorer bets sensibly
Scorecast (first/anytime scorer plus correct score) and bet-builder combinations can produce eye-catching odds, but each extra leg multiplies the ways your bet can fail. Treat them as occasional, small-stake plays rather than your staple. If you do stack legs into an accumulator, keep the selections genuinely independent in your reasoning and keep stakes disciplined. For broader match-analysis habits, our football betting strategy guide covers the groundwork.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Backing a name, not a role. A famous forward playing out of position or on limited minutes is a poor bet regardless of reputation.
- Ignoring team news. Betting FGS or last scorer before line-ups are confirmed risks backing a benched or rested player.
- Forgetting the own-goal and substitute rules. These quietly change how your bet settles.
- Chasing longshot first-scorer prices every week. The variance will grind a casual bankroll down — size these stakes accordingly.
FAQ
Does an own goal count for first goalscorer bets?
No. At virtually all bookmakers own goals are disregarded for goalscorer settlement. If the opening goal is an own goal, first-scorer bets typically carry over to the next player who scores a legitimate goal.
What happens to my first goalscorer bet if my player is a substitute?
If the first goal is scored before your player comes on, most bookmakers void the bet and return your stake, because your selection was not on the pitch when the opening goal went in. Anytime bets usually stand if the player plays any part.
Is anytime goalscorer better value than first goalscorer?
For regular betting, most experienced bettors prefer anytime because it rewards genuine scoring likelihood over timing luck and has lower variance. First goalscorer offers bigger odds and suits occasional, well-reasoned plays rather than a staking staple.
How important is penalty-taker status?
Very. A confirmed first-choice penalty taker has a higher scoring ceiling, and because taker changes are not always well publicised, the market can be slow to adjust — making it one of the more reliable value angles.
The takeaway
Goalscorer betting rewards homework over hunches. Confirm minutes and starting status, favour players with high box presence and shot volume, hunt down the current penalty-taker, and weigh the opposition and likely game state. Use anytime markets for steady value and reserve first and last scorer for stronger, smaller-stake reads — and always check the own-goal and substitute rules before you commit.
Bet responsibly — 18+, only stake what you can afford to lose, and seek help via a service like GamCare or BeGambleAware if gambling stops being fun. No bet is ever guaranteed.
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